METR high-access review estimates Anthropic model progress roughly doubled, mostly from AI-assisted R&D

Independent evaluator METR published on November 5 a high-access review it ran from August 12 to October 29, 2026. Staff used Anthropic-provided systems to inspect internal R&D data; the report stresses this was not employee-style full access. Most METR staff on the project believe that as of October 2026, Anthropic is likely improving model capabilities on well-specified tasks at about twice the March 2024–October 2025 pace, with high uncertainty (perhaps nearer 1.3x or 3x). They say most of that speed-up is likely from heavy use of AI in R&D, while other factors also mattered in late 2025. Internal AECI growth since October 2025 is about 1.9x the earlier rate (95% CI 1.5–2.8x). Anthropic redacted much key evidence; METR says the public must lean more on its judgment.

Written by dalao.ai: the title, summary and why it matters are our own words. The original reports are the record; their publishers keep authorship.